UN Climate Talks: 2010 - 2023

Below is the second part in the two-part series on UN climate talks and the policies that shaped modern climate activism.

Last updated: January 2024.

2011. New Accord to Apply to All Countries. The conference in Durban, South Africa, nearly collapses after the world’s three biggest polluters—China, India, and the United States—reject an accord proposed by the European Union. But they eventually agree to work toward drafting a new, legally binding agreement in 2015 at the latest. The new agreement will differ from the Kyoto Protocol in that it will apply to both developed and developing countries.

2012. No Deal in Doha. Negotiators in Doha for COP18 extend the Kyoto Protocol until 2020, but remaining participants account for just 15 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. By this time, Canada has withdrawn from the treaty, and Japan and Russia say they will not accept new commitments. (The United States never signed on.) Environmental groups criticize countries for not reaching an effective agreement as Typhoon Bopha slams the Philippines, which they say exemplifies a rise in extreme weather caused by climate change. One of the conference’s successes is the Doha Amendment, under which developed countries agree to assist developing countries mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. The agreement also sets delegates on the path toward a new treaty.

2013. Walkout in Warsaw. During the first week of COP19 in Poland, a grouping of developing countries, known as the Group of Seventy-Seven (G77), and China propose a new funding mechanism to help vulnerable countries deal with “loss and damage” caused by climate change. Developed countries oppose the mechanism, so the G77’s lead negotiators walk out of the conference. Talks eventually resume, and governments agree to a mechanism that falls short of what developing countries wanted. Countries also agree on how to implement an initiative to end deforestation known as REDD+, but the conference is described by analysts as the “least consequential COP in several years”.

2015. Landmark Paris Agreement Reached. One hundred ninety-six countries agree to what experts call the most significant global climate agreement in history, known as the Paris Agreement. Unlike past accords, it requires nearly all countries—both developed and developing—to set emissions reduction goals. However, countries can choose their own targets and there are no enforcement mechanisms to ensure they meet them. Under the agreement, countries are supposed to submit targets known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The mission of the Paris Agreement, which enters into force in November 2016, is to keep global temperature rise below 2°C and pursue efforts to keep it below 1.5°C. But analysts urge more action to achieve this goal. In 2017, President Donald J. Trump withdraws the United States from the agreement, saying that it imposes “draconian financial and economic burdens” on the country.

2018. Rules for Paris Agreement Decided. Just ahead of COP24 in Katowice, Poland, a new IPCC report warns of devastating consequences—including stronger storms and dangerous heat waves—if the average global temperature rises 1.5°C above preindustrial levels and projects that it could reach that level by 2030. Despite the report, countries do not agree to stronger targets. They do, however, largely settle on the rules for implementing the Paris accord, covering questions including how countries should report their emissions. They do not agree on rules for carbon trading, however, and push that discussion to 2019.

September 2019. UN Chief Plans Climate Action Summit. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres organizes the UN Climate Action Summit for world leaders in New York. Countries are mandated by the Paris Agreement to submit revised NDCs by the following year, so the meeting is a chance for leaders to share their ideas. But leaders of the world’s top carbon-emitting countries, including the United States and China, do not attend. At the summit, Guterres asks countries to submit plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 45 percent by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2050.

December 2019. Lost Opportunity in Madrid. COP25 is marked by a lack of progress on major climate issues despite a year of dire warnings from scientists, record heatwaves, and worldwide protests demanding action. Negotiators are unable to finalize rules for a global carbon market, and they disagree over whether to compensate developing countries devastated by effects of climate change including rising sea levels and extreme weather. The conference’s final declaration does not explicitly call on countries to increase their climate pledges made under the Paris Agreement, and Secretary-General Guterres describes the talks as a lost opportunity.

April 2020. Talks Postponed Amid COVID-19 Pandemic. The United Nations postpones COP26, originally scheduled for November 2020, until 2021 because of a pandemic of a new coronavirus disease, known as COVID-19. Countries were expected to strengthen their emissions reduction goals set under the Paris Agreement at the conference in Glasgow. Amid the pandemic, emissions fall worldwide as many countries implement nationwide shutdowns that drastically slow economic activity. But experts predict that the reductions won’t last, with governments under pressure to boost output and disregard the environment to save their struggling economies.

July 2021. Nations Update Pledges Ahead of COP26. More than one hundred countries, altogether accounting for nearly 60 percent of Paris Agreement signatories, meet the deadline to submit updated NDCs ahead of COP26 in November. Some of the top emitters propose more ambitious targets. President Joe Biden announces that the United States will aim to cut its emissions to roughly half of its 2005 level by 2030, doubling President Obama’s commitment. Meanwhile, China and India, responsible for roughly one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019, miss the deadline. An IPCC report released the following month predicts that the world will reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming within the next two decades even if nations drastically cut emissions immediately.

November 2021. 1.5°C Goal ‘Kept Alive’ in Glasgow. COP26 President Alok Sharma says commitments made during the conference keep the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C “alive” but its “pulse is weak.” The final agreement, the Glasgow Climate Pact, calls for countries to reduce coal use and fossil fuel subsidies—both firsts for a UN climate agreement—and urges governments to submit more ambitious emissions-reduction targets by the end of 2022. In addition, delegates finally establish rules for a global carbon market. Smaller groups of countries make notable side deals on deforestation, methane emissions, coal, and more. But analysts note that even if countries follow through on their pledges for 2030 and beyond, the world’s average temperature will still rise 2.1°C (3.8°F).

November 2022. Breakthrough on Loss and Damage but Little Else in Egypt. At COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, nations agree for the first time to establish a fund to compensate poor and vulnerable countries for losses and damages due to climate change, though the details are left undecided. Also for the first time, the conference’s final communiqué calls for global financial institutions to revamp their practices to address the climate crisis. However, countries don’t commit to phasing down use of all fossil fuels, and a goal to reach peak emissions by 2025 is removed from the communiqué. Guterres says that continuing to use fossil fuels means “double trouble” for the planet.

September 2023. UN Releases Technical Findings From the First Global Stocktake. Conducted every five years, the global stocktake assesses countries’ progress toward implementing the Paris Agreement. Over the course of two years, countries submit their information to the UN, which evaluates their efforts to cut emissions and adapt to climate disasters. The technical report concludes the world is still “not on track” to meet the goals set out during the Paris Agreement, but current policies have curbed the worst-case scenario of 3.7°C to 4.8°C (6.7°F to 8.6°F) of warming by 2100. Expected temperature increases now range between 2.4°C to 2.6°C (4.3°F to 4.6°F), with the possibility of dropping to as low as 1.7°C to 2.1°C (3.1°F to 3.8°F) if countries fully implement net-zero emissions targets.

December 2023. Nations Reach Milestone Deal to Transition Away From Fossil Fuels. Countries agree to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels in a “just, orderly and equitable manner” at COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The deal is the first time a UN climate agreement has explicitly mentioned a phase-down of fossil fuels. Among other provisions, the agreement calls for tripling renewable energy capacity and slashing methane emissions by 2030, and hashes out the details of the Loss and Damage Fund agreed upon at the previous year’s conference. But according to a statement released by the Alliance of Small Island States, the deal falls short by not including language to formally “phase out” fossil fuels and leaving a “litany of loopholes” for ineffective carbon capture and storage and nuclear solutions. Still, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell claims this agreement marks “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era.

This text is taken from the Council on Foreign Relations' work.