In the noble pursuit of carbon neutrality, the role of electric bicycles (e-bikes) emerges as a formidable solution that wields the power of battery-powered motors to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in the domain of personal transportation. In 2022, e-bikes made their mark, with a remarkable 9.2 million units sold. We envision the potential for their use to increase by 48% to 67% as outlined in the EV outlook 2023 by 2050, with significant growth anticipated in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. This visionary solution carries the potential to curtail carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by an impressive 1.39–1.55 gigatons and bestow financial savings upon e-bike owners in the range of US$522.7 – 579.9 billion in first costs and US$1.4 – 1.6 trillion in lifetime operating expenses.

The foundation of this solution rests upon the utilization of bicycles, augmented by rechargeable batteries, thereby supplanting conventional automobiles, public transit, conventional bicycles, two-wheelers, and pedestrian modes of transport.

E-bikes represent a beacon of environmentally responsible motorized transportation. They inherit many of the commendable attributes of traditional bicycles, particularly the ease and versatility of urban commuting. However, what sets e-bikes apart is the inclusion of a motor and battery, rendering it feasible to surmount steep inclines and traverse extensive distances with minimal effort. This technological enhancement expands the demographic of e-bike users, encompassing individuals who might not otherwise consider active, low-carbon transportation. Yet, it is worth noting that these benefits do not come without their environmental costs. E-bikes tend to have higher emissions compared to traditional bicycles or walking. Their acquisition costs can surpass those of conventional bicycles, and the end-of-life phase presents a challenge in the disposal of expired batteries. Furthermore, the manufacture and charging of e-bike batteries contribute to increased carbon dioxide emissions when juxtaposed with the manufacturing process of traditional bicycles.

In our comprehensive analysis, we evaluate the net environmental and financial implications of escalating e-bike usage on a global scale, spanning from 2020 to 2050. Our comparative approach involves assessing e-bikes against alternative mobility options since research indicates that many e-bike users would have otherwise chosen different modes of transportation, including light-duty vehicles, public transit, conventional bicycles, and motorized two-wheeled vehicles such as scooters.

The total addressable market for e-bikes encompasses the entirety of urban transportation demand projected up to 2050. These projections are meticulously derived from baseline estimations articulated by esteemed institutions like the International Energy Agency Global EV Outlook 2023 and the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). Additionally, adoption estimates emanate from the collaborative research endeavors of the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy and the University of California, Davis (ITDP/UCD). While a significant portion of global adoption transpires in China, the expectation of widespread growth is envisioned globally.

Our scenario posits a future where e-bike use perpetuates its growth trajectory without substantial interventions, reaching 1.44 trillion passenger-kilometers, thereby constituting 3 percent of total urban travel.

The determination of installation costs for this scenario encompasses an array of sources, with a predominant emphasis on e-bike batteries as the primary cost component. Factoring in the varying battery sizes, we establish the price of e-bikes at US$639,115 per megawatt-hour of installed battery capacity, an average gleaned from 23 data points. The first cost to implement this solution is ascertained in dollars per installed megawatt-hour of battery, predicated on the purchase price of e-bikes, weighted according to battery type and regional considerations. Furthermore, these calculations are founded upon the assumption that one megawatt-hour of installed battery capacity accommodates batteries for approximately 2,200 e-bikes, each equipped with a 458-watt-hour pack, with each e-bike averaging a consistent number of passenger-kilometers per year. It is worth noting that both battery size and average passenger-kilometers per year exhibit temporal changes.

To conduct a meticulous financial evaluation, conventional operating and maintenance costs are considered, encompassing expenses expressed in 2014 US dollars per passenger-kilometer and regionalized to account for variations in mode share and costs across regions. Internal combustion vehicles entail an additional fixed expense in the form of insurance. Operating and maintenance costs for this solution assume minimal maintenance costs for e-bikes beyond electricity expenses.

Under this scenario, e-bikes have the potential to avert the release of 1.39 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gases, while also conferring US$1.40 trillion in cumulative lifetime net operating cost savings over the period from 2020 to 2050. Notably, the initial costs for implementation are US$522.7 billion lower than those associated with conventional automobiles, even when accounting for battery replacement expenses.

The transition of passengers to lower-emission modes of transportation represents a momentous stride toward the realization of drawdown. The Electric Bicycles solution emerges as a significant component of this transition. In 2018, the transportation sector was responsible for an estimated 9.5 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. Our scenario illustrates that substituting e-bikes for conventional modes can usher in a reduction of 0.07 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions on average per year from 2020 to 2050, cumulatively amounting to a noteworthy 1.14 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions over this span. In more progressive scenarios, bicycling increasingly takes precedence over car trips, and the proportion of e-bike journeys escalates.

The global upheaval initiated by the pandemic in 2020 witnessed a transition towards bicycling, particularly e-bikes, as an alternative for recreation and as a replacement for journeys that would have conventionally been undertaken using public transit. E-bikes and bicycles experienced unprecedented demand across the globe, prompting several governments to introduce incentives for replacing old automobiles with e-bikes. Temporary bicycle lanes appeared in various corners of the world, as policymakers explored the prospect of making this transition a permanent feature of urban mobility.

This shift, marked by a decline in car trips and an upswing in bicycle journeys, is accompanied by multifaceted benefits, encompassing reduced congestion, improved air quality, diminished noise pollution, lower stress levels, and reduced travel delays. Beyond its climate-related impacts, e-bikes hold the advantage of being cost-effective, emitting less, consuming fewer materials than automobiles, alleviating traffic congestion, and potentially outpacing cars in congested traffic. Additionally, e-bikes deliver health improvements and exert positive influences on local economies, as bike users frequently patronize local businesses in their immediate communities.

References.
Michael McQueen, John MacArthur, Christopher Cherry, The E-Bike Potential: Estimating regional e-bike impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 87, 2020, 102482, ISSN 1361-9209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102482. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920920306696).

IEA (2023), Global EV Outlook 2023, IEA, Paris. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023, License: CC BY 4.0.